It may sound callous, but now may be the “Perfect Storm” of conditions that would make it a favourable time for the PLA to retake Taiwan by force.
China’s major competitor in the region is devastated by the earthquake and the proceeding tsunamis. The US Navy’s 7th and 3rd Fleets will be mobilized for the huge recovery effort, as well as being logistically affected due to the earthquake.
In Europe, NATO is all fingers and no thumbs over the No-Fly Zone in Libya, which despite it being a long way off will still be taking up many of the assets allocated to the 5th and 6th fleets.
Meanwhile, the U.S still has two wars going on in Iraq and Afghanistan.
From a military point of view, the U.S navy may never be so stretched again - having so many pressing and urgent military and humanitarian needs.
Right now, Carriers Ronald Reagan, George Washington and Essex will be being reconfigured for urgent mission to help the 100,000s of Japanese refugees - the U.S's principle partner in the region. It would be a logistical nightmare and almost a step too far to reconfigure them back into a war fighting stance for a Taiwan contingency. Plus, Obama just isn't up to it!
While there may be those in the PLA that may see the opportunity - Nothing will happen.
Why? Because I believe it’s not the in the nature of the CCP to be so bold even when presented with the Perfect Storm of events.
Even though the PLA actively writes about taking the initiative militarily and striking while the enemy is weak and over stretched, this is hard for them to materialize into practice – blame Confucius!
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