Comparing potential ‘Game Changers’

Consider if you will, China’s updated DF-21 Anti Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM), purportedly able to hit and sink an aircraft carrier, and now 'semi' operational with the PLA’s 2^nd Artillery.

Then consider the U.S Air forces X-37B. A miniature, pilot-less shuttle that is able to loiter in space for as much as 270 days. Doing what? Well, it’s not entirely clear.

Both potential game changers in an increasing military rivalry between the U.S and China.

One, tried and tested, but no one knows what it can do. The other completely untried, never tested, but everyone knows what it is supposed to do.

X-37B

Originally a NASA project and taken over by the DoD, the X-37B has been in development since mid-1990s. It’s a re-usable, unmanned spacecraft that enters orbit atop an Air Force rocket and re-enters the atmosphere as a glider. Its uses are shrouded in mystery and highly classified. If you think it looks like a mini shuttle then you’re not mistaken, as it could be described as its small nephew. Like its uncle, the X-37B can be just as versatile and can carry out any number of tasks in space. What makes it potentially ‘game changing’ is its ability to be weaponized and loiter, picking off satellites at will. Of course, that is only speculation, its uses are highly classified. Plus, the US is actively trying to get agreements from other users not to militarize space, so the X-37B may never carry a single weapon if agreement can be found. But the significant threat is there. Having recently spent 7months in space, there can be no doubt that this is a ‘potential’ weapon system that exists, but has never been demonstrated.

Compare this to the DF-21 Carrier Killer – the missile certainly exists, but the ability to track and hit a moving target with a war-head traveling at mach-10 is still an idea, and not a proven reality.

It’s a potential weapon that potentially exists.

The US navy recently acknowledged that the 2^nd Artillery now have the new DF-21 in limited deployment. This maybe so, but this is a far cry from having a carrier killer missile system in operation. The statement by the Navy refers to the missile that would be used if such a system were operational. It remains to be seen whether all the other component parts can be sewn together to transfer the DF-21 from a threat into an actual carrier-killer missile.

One doesn’t need to be a technical expert to realize that the carrier killer missile system is going to be incredibly reliant on a sophisticated satellite tracking system. However, this poses significant dilemmas for any regime that intends to use it on the U.S. Firstly, the back-bone of the U.S ability to wage war are its satellite networks, allowing it unprecedented power projection across the globe. Therefore, in order to seriously disable the U.S military, attacking it’s satellite network would be much more effective than blooding the nose of the navy by sinking a carrier. Remember the U.S is not averse to letting its carriers sink. 10 fleet carriers were sunk in WW2. But any attack on the satellite system would doubtlessly lead to an immediate retaliatory strike on the opposing sides satellites network.

Making hitting a carrier more preferable?

But consider, any attack on a carrier would almost certainly lead to an attack upon the very system that sank it, the satellites, not the missile launchers. So, the outcomes are the same and that’s where the highly classified, interchangeable X-37B enters as a real potential game changer. Easily launched, highly maneuverable, ultimately versatile and 'probably' an excellent satellite killer.

Of course, as I said before, this is all speculation –

But we know, one system is out there.. but we don’t know what it is for...

and

The other system, we know what it’s for, but don’t know if it’s out there.

Welcome the the 21^st century!