China proudly shows off US Aircraft Carriers

Yes, a very strange headline, but we’re accustomed to reading between the lines at Chimerica War and here’s what we make of the latest US Navy visits to Hong Kong.

First though a little perspective. It is certainly true that the US Navy makes many port calls to Hong Kong every year and there are many local businesses that are very dependent upon the ships, whether in selling trips, souvenirs, restaurants or providing huge quantities of provisions, but despite this these trips don’t always go like clock work. As was demonstrated so well by the USS Kitty Hawk debacle in 2007. Plus, every time the US and China fall out military exchanges are the first to go and this includes port visits in Hong Kong, leaving heaps of local businesses high and dry.

So even though these trips can be perceived as standard and run of the mill they can also take on immense significance and this has never been more so than in the last couple of weeks with the CCP openly using the US Navy as a tool in its own propaganda campaign.

Doesn’t make sense? Well read on

The PLA’s Goals – Part One

The People’s Liberation Army spends a lot of time and effort preparing for limited wars in Asia. Or in their words,

“Win local wars under the conditions of informationization, so as to accomplish its historical missions”. [China’s Defense White Paper 2010]

Due to the complex nature of China and its relationship with the CCP, winning limited wars are seen as necessary stepping-stones to China’s ultimate, glorious destiny and the fulfilling of their ‘historical mission’.

China has four major battle-boxes, which appear below in order of phases,

Phase 1 – Gain control of the South China Sea
Phase 2 – Liberate Taiwan
Phase 3 – Subjugate Japan
Phase 4 – Usurp the United States as the preeminent global hegemony

Every one of these phases could lead to a cataclysmic conflict with the US and its Allies. However the CCP will aim to achieve each phase by deftly pirouetting around the US and trying not to provoke it into a full-blown, protracted war.

Right now China is actively carrying out Phase 1 of its plan. ASEAN countries are on notice that China fully intends to bring the South China Seas under its dominion. In order to do this it will be using a carrot and stick approach with the smaller countries, erstwhile convincing the US that its precious freedom of the seas will not be jeopardized. If this is to proceed as per the Chinese plan, smaller countries like the Philippine, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia will have to contend with an ever-increasing presence of Chinese ‘civilian’ patrol boats harassing their fleets. Ultimately making their lives miserable by shear weight of numbers. As civilian ships, these boats will have strict orders not to escalate situations to the kinetic level, but make China’s presence felt by overwhelming force of numbers and control.

Imagine if you will, a park with one hundred over-zealous parkies (Park-keepers) watching your every move and haranguing you for the slightest infraction of their unilateral rules. Sooner or later you’re going to give up going to the park, unless of course you can raise a ‘gang’ of your own to chase the parkies out. For China the perfect execution of this plan would be over a period of years it finally pushes back other countries from the South China Seas by slowing adding pressure on those that do not comply with its interpretation of Territorial Waters and rewarding those that do.

Divide and conquer at its best. China’s strategist are so slavishly bound to Sun Tzu’s Art of War it makes them highly predictable.

China also realizes that some countries may not be as pliant as others and may need more stick than carrot. Chief amongst these ‘unruly, minor states’ is Vietnam. The PLA knows that it will probably need to fight with Vietnam at some stage to a) bring the unruly state into line with the greater ‘destiny of Asia’ and b) help convince other states that China means business. You can read a dedicated piece on this war here. Due to this belief, the PLA is busy practicing and theorizing on how to win a limited war against Vietnam. If we could be a fly on the wall and peer at the PLA’s to-do-list, defeating Vietnam in a short, sharp, shock and awe war would be the major task of Phase 1. (Note, it’s not entirely guaranteed that the US wouldn’t come to Vietnam’s aid, but in reality, very, very unlikely).

With Vietnam subjugated, other Asian countries compliant and the US still dithering on what it should do, China will proceed to Phase 2 - Recovery of Taiwan.

The PLA now realize that in order to recover Taiwan they not only need to cross the choppy Taiwan Strait, they actually need to control the entire flow of shipping through the South China Seas. China is playing a long game here. This could happen next year or within the decade, but in order for a recovery attempt to succeed the PLA Navy needs to be able to lock down the South China Seas and prevent any swash-buckling cavalry rescue by the US.

See also

Attack by an ASBM

China’s Cult of Defense

AirSea Battle Part One

Missiles, Missiles, Missiles

Locked in China's sights

China is now beginning to actively up the stakes for the US Navy with “assassins mace” style weapons, that will keep the hawks in Washington guessing as to whether it really is worth risking so much for isolated Taiwan. Interestingly in Phase 2 of the PLA plan the tone of China’s negotiation will change drastically. If PLA is able to successfully subdue Vietnam, which it is not guaranteed, but if this is the case, Phase 2 will see China’s tone change markedly to a much more confident and aggressive stance. Gone will be the days of veiled threats to US Battle Groups, but replaced by overt threats and warnings that if the US proceeds to enter the South China Seas it will be targeted. A de-facto creeping, embargo on Taiwan will be installed, with vital shipments being delayed and diverted for reasons of safety, which would effectively close an ever-shrinking noose around Taiwan’s neck. With the US at arms length, Taiwan will subject to a much harsher carrot and stick philosophy, with tangible rewards for correct behaviour and significant penalties for wrong behaviour.

Of course, everyone knows that the CCP and the PLA are willing to throw in all their chips to secure Taiwan militarily if need be. However, their plan is not an all or nothing gamble. It’s a calculated, creeping strategy. First control the seas around Taiwan, then slowly tighten the noose imperceptibly with a carrot and stick approach to the Taiwanese government.
Again, all this will take place while holding back the US with the CCP’s all-time favorite tactic, plausible deniability . With the seas secured, the Mainland’s efforts to absorb Taiwan will increase significantly and the US be effectively ‘shut-out’ and facing an up-hill struggle if it wishes to help Taiwan. The CCP will also begin to promote a narrative that Taiwan is drawing ever closer to the Mainland. This may actually be a fact, or not, but for the CCP the important part is to convince the US that risking so much for an island whose public want to reunify is a waste of time. Certainly, the US will not want to sell Taiwan advance arms if it thinks they're going to end up in the PLA's hands in five years without a fight.

If the PLA’s plan works, Taiwan will slowly be strangled into submission without ever creating a real embargo or by engaging in open hostilities. New weapons will not reach it, the US Navy will be at arms length and Taiwan will slowly accept its fate and reunite with the Motherland, peacefully. Furious diplomatic negotiations will take place and the CCP will promise Taiwan all kinds of systems to protect its special nature as part of the PRC and a greater strategic goal will be achieved. China’s confidence level will now be at an all time high and it will not be long before it proceeds to Phase 3 of its plan – subjugate Japan.

With China now controlling Taiwan, the South China Seas and access directly into the Pacific, it wont be long before pressure is put upon Japan’s supply lines. Again, the essence of this strategy will initially be imperceptible inconveniences that slowly put the squeeze on the Japanese economy and supply needs until a kinetic war is unavoidable. At this time the potential level of conflict could be very intense. With China now in full control of the South China Seas its ability to manipulate Japan into a pliable position will have increased significantly. At this time with Japan and China at logger-heads the CCP’s goal will be to convince the US that it does not want to get involved in a war between Asians. It will have been working over-time to sew seeds of discontent between Japan and the US, hoping that the US will not honour its treaty agreements to Japan. The CCP will be aggressively wielding its stick and arguing that the US has no business getting involved in a purely Asian war and it will threaten to go nuclear if the US gets involved. Meanwhile China will be offering carrots of continuing trade and peace between the two ‘great nations,’ if it stays neutral. If the US honours its defense treaty with Japan then Phase 4 of the plan is activated – ultimate showdown with America for global supremacy will commence – there can be only one!

In every one of these stages, China is planning to defeat its adversary using short, high-intensity, limited war strategies with the threat of nuclear strike close to hand, should things not proceed to plan. Despite having being born from the mother of protracted war and resistance, the PLA sees no future in this outdated form of war. Its focus is very firmly on, high velocity, quick-start, quick-end wars with the possibility of nuclear escalation firmly on the table from the off-set of any hostilities. This makes the PLA very, very dangerous. Effectively they are saying, “this is our goal, we want it. How much are you prepared to commit to prevent us from having it?”

Continued in The PLA Goals. Part II

Author: Editor

Copyright © Chimerica War. 2011

Taiwan's Carrier Killer?

There's never a dull moment in the Asia Pacific region and for those who doubt we're in the early stages of an arms race consider Taiwan's latest aircraft carrier killer missile the, Hsiung Feng III. Released on the same day that China began sea trials of its first aircraft carrier, the Varyag soon to be Shi Lang.

Continue reading the story here at our main site >>>>

China releases brand new pictures of Varyag/Shi Lang

China has released brand new pictures of Varyag, soon to be Shi-Lang, soon to be pride of PLA Navy.

Click on the picture to see more photos of the ship.

It certainly is a big piece of kit to start with.

Why the Shi Lang (Varyag) will never see action

Chinese media is alight with the coming unveiling of China’s first aircraft carrier, Shi Lang (Varyag) and although it may send shivers of discontent through its regional adversaries one has to state, there’s no reason why China shouldn’t have a carrier.

After all, the US, UK, France, Russia, Japan, India, Brazil, Argentina, Canada, Italy, Spain, Australia, Netherlands and Thailand all have had one or more at sometime in history, so why not China now? The simple answer is that there’s no reason why China shouldn’t have one, it has maritime interests and is a burgeoning power and deserves to have an offshore navy.

However, like most things in the Chinese military these days it is set to burst onto the scene with enormous fanfare and hyperbole which unfortunately places it in the realms of ‘unreality’ before it even starts. It is a mistake by the CCP leadership to place the nation’s hopes on a converted, old, Soviet, rust-bucket. However this mistake is already in full swing, with Xinhua describing the ship as embodying “70 years of Chinese hopes".

The ship will be under incredible pressure to speed through the learning curve on how to run a modern day carrier. Add on to this the expectations of 1.2billion people and it is enough to sink any ship. I can’t begin to imagine the pressure the captain and his pilots will be under and that’s just in peacetime.

So, if war should break out, what might we expect from the Shi Lang (Varyag)?

Unfortunately in the annals of maritime history, fate is rarely kind to new-pretenders and their capital ships. One only needs to look at the fates of the Bismark, hunted down and destroyed by the nimbler, more experienced Royal Navy. Or the Yamato class super battleships, picked off by the US airforce, to grasp that capital ships often serve as good target practices and nothing else.

In reality though, I think the Shi Lang’s fate maybe far less heroic and share a fate similar to Veinticinco de Mayo.

For those of you who don’t know, the Veinticinco de Mayo was the Argentinean aircraft carrier that played no role in the Falklands War in 1982. After hearing that the British Task Force was sailing, the De Mayo was put to sea to intercept, but bad weather prevented any attack and it returned to port. Once in port it never left again for the duration of the war.

Why did it stay in port?

Because it knew for sure that it would be sunk by British subs. The British had thrown a 200mile exclusion zone around the Falkland Islands and another Argentinean capital ship, the General Belgrano had been sunk steaming away from the islands, killing 1,500 sailors and sending a clear message to the De Mayo that as soon as it entered deep water it would be hit. British subs had express orders to sink the De Mayo on sight, regardless of its destination.

So that was the end of the De Mayo, it sat out the war, useless, while the British brought in their two carriers Invincible and Hermes and quickly gained air superiority with their superior Sea Harrier jumpjets. 10,000miles from home, the Royal Navy was able to bring superior force to bear on the Argentineans who were just 400 miles away from the battle.

This is nothing to do with luck. It’s about experience, timing and utilization of kit, because having a carrier battle group requires a whole suite of ships to protect it. They’re not a beginners piece of kit. In a small navy, the amount of ships needed to protect a carrier puts huge pressures on the enitre navy. For the carrier to move into hostile territoy takes incredible amounts of coordination.

Unfortunately for the Shi Lang (Varyag) , it will ply its trade in seas infested with the subs of the world’s two most formidable fleets, the US and the Japanese. The Japanese navy cut its teeth on 60 years of Cold War, tracking the best of the Soviet fleet in the seas off Japan, China’s backyard, and the US navy needs no introduction. So, with just an infant anti-submarine fleet the Chinese Southern navy will be easily found wanting, leaving the Shi Lang with little protection, making it highly unlikely that it will ever be able to be brought to the fight.

One may add that the Chinese navy has the largest submarine fleet in the region, with over 60 boats. Surely these will be the counter weight to protect the Shi Lang? But this fleet too, is untested, with only a few boats being truly world class, and don’t forget, in WW2, the German Wolf-packs had more than 300 U-boats, yet they still weren’t able to win the Battle for the Atlantic.

On top of this, the Age of the Carrier is over. We are in the twighlight of the Carrier Strike Group’s power. America knows this and is slowly but surely moving away from them. Long-Range-Unmanned Strike is the future of warfare. Just like the Yamato Class Battleships of WW2 came at the end of the Age of the Battleship, so Shi Lang (Varyag) joins the party too late to make a difference.

I know that I may seem like a party-pooper, but I wager that the Shi Lang (Varyag) wont venture out of port if a serious conflict breaks out within the next 10 years, as the CCP wont want to risk losing it. That’s the price you have to pay when you place the hopes of an entire nation on one ship. China certainly deserves to have a carrier, but it is a mistake to pin the national interest upon a ship that is outdated before the first plane has even taken off.