Fortunately for future military planners great innovative breakthroughs rarely happen in a vacuum and so rarely appear out of nowhere. This is why the generational analogy is so apt for describing military hardware. In the case of fifth generation fighters (5G), the concept encapsulates an enormous culmination of incremental knowledge that has led up to a new direction for the entire system. What is key is that the systems are continually evolving in conjunction with the human skills and the ongoing tactical knowledge. None of these factors exist separately from the other. In the case of the F-22 Raptor, this plane represents the technological and human breakthroughs that have been banked over numerous wars and countless morphications of the American fighter plane. In recent months the appearance of the Chinese J20 fighter has sent ripples through the military world, but we have to ask ourselves, what are we really looking at here? What really constitutes a 5G fighter?
To answer our question, we can first look at nature. Just like technology, the evolution of a species doesn’t just happen overnight in a vacuum. It’s a constant work in process evolving over countless generational designs and tweaks. Of course, in nature there are mimics, take the example of the Milk snake and the Coral snake, to the untrained eye, both look deadly, but one is harmless and practicing mimicry, while the other is a highly dangerous, venomous snake. Batesian mimicry as it is known is typified by a harmless species evolving to imitate the warning signals of a deadly species. This is possible as the evolutionary step to imitate outer appearance is much easier than the huge leap to synergize the entire biological system, venom and all. Snakes are not the only animals in the business of mimicry, we find it all over the animal kingdom, because natural selection actually makes this process fairly simple in evolutionary terms. However, biologists are not expecting the Milk Snake to suddenly materialize venom, as it has followed a completely different evolutionary track to its similar looking Coral cousin. Looking similar is good enough to serve its purpose and in reality, is the limit of the Milk snakes ability given the circumstances. Of course at the end of the day, both the snakes are in the business of killing, it’s just that one does it a lot more efficiently than the other, because it is packing venom. This Batesian mimicry is apt for generational weapons systems too and especially so for the modern 5G fighter presented to the world by the PLAAF. It certainly looks like a 5G fighter, but without the obvious evolutionary history to back it up, it may well prove to be more of a Milk snake than a Coral snake. Unfortunately, we can’t know without ‘looking under the hood,’ or seeing it in combat but the clear lesson from nature is that these things rarely, if ever happen over night and take time.
Of course, once upon a time, the Coral snake didn’t have poison either, and had to rely upon an evolutionary glitch to innovate it. So has this revolutionary leap taken place in the new Chinese 5G fighter? Again, we can’t know for sure, but if it has, we are looking at the first stage in a very long process, that is entirely separate from any of the generational breakthroughs that have taken place in the US militaries evolution since the dawning of flight and air combat. So, if we are looking at something truly innovative, then it would be much fairer to describe this as China’s 1st generational fighter.
Detractors from this argument will argue, “But China can skip the previous evolutions by the clever use of reverse technology and leap-frog breakthroughs,” but this idea is more ‘hopeful’ than factual. Again, we can’t know, it could well be that the Chinese 5G fighter really has hurtled through the evolutionary steps that were needed to create the F-22. However we can look for signs in other fields, as major technological breakthroughs don’t happen in a vacuum, and signs of successful leapfrogging or reverse engineering will show up in other industries.
The obvious first place to look is the Shengyang J-11. Certainly this is a copy of the Sukhoi 27, originally purchased from the Russians to be built in China. The appearance of the identical J-11 was certainly met with consternation by the Russian arms market, especially when the J-11 was offered for international sale at a price that undercut the SU-27, but like so many ‘Made in China’ products, it too can’t escape the accusations of inferiority. Whether the claims are true or not, they certainly are persistent in tagging the J-11 as inferior to its SU-27 cousin. Claims that the Chinese-made engines have neither power nor survivability of the Russian engines all point to the notion that reverse engineering just doesn’t cut it when reproducing hi-tech products. Shengyang were able to reproduce the airframe as it was provided with blueprints, the vital avionics and engines were left out of the deal. Even the much-lauded J-20 is rumoured to be equipped with two Russian engines. A particularly ominous sign, if true, as it would clearly indicate that the J-11 engine problem is real and a significant hurdle for the Chinese technicians to reverse engineer. Obviously, if the J-11’s engines, were up to scratch then they would be the basis for development in the new J-20. The fact that the F-22’s engines were completely designed from scratch only widens the obvious known generational gaps between the two fighters.
We can also look on a much broader scale to see whether signs of ‘5G’ technology are coming of age in China. We can start by looking at other comparable technologies where China is not inhibited by the cumbersome arms ban imposed upon it by Europe and the U.S. The car industry is a good place to start. Foreign car companies have been heavily investing in China for over 25years. One only needs to travel north of Shanghai to see the huge car plants opened up by the likes of Volkswagon to see that China has had ample investment of both money and technology in this field, yet, China still does not produce a world class car, designed and manufactured entirely in China. The likes of Chery Motors are now making in-roads into the local market, but their future global penetration remains limited. Chery has been cited for stealing designs and has employed Mitsubishi employees to reinforce its brand, but still it struggles to produce a quality, global product. Chery plans to start importing sedan’s into the European and US markets in 2011, but let’s put a perspective on this, we’re talking a 25year cycle to produce a sedan fit for the global market and whose to say how it will compare to other sedan cars? So, the question has to be asked, if China isn’t producing a global, selling sedan, is it reasonable to believe that it is producing 5G technology for fighter planes? Until we see comparable high-technology coming out China in other industries then it will remain likely that the military technology it rolls out will be more mimic than substance. Call me a cynic, but until I see a Chinese government officials giving up their Japanese or German cars for local ones and a locally made high performance car, not a sedan, that is a preferred buying option over a Ferrari or the Porsche, then I’ll believe that engineers are making in roads through reverse technology. The PLA and its organizations are nowhere near as dynamic as modern Chinese companies with high levels of FDI. After all, Chery employs Japanese car specialists. This is obviously not happening over at Shegyang aircraft, who’s engineers are probably left studying models of F-22s to work out why the shapes occur like they do. We may take this example across the entire spectrum of products coming out of China, from kitchen taps to flat screen TVs. For China makes them all, but they’re not quality global brands and fall way short of the quality expected.
Here’s a list of the most prominent brands in China to look out for, Lenovo, Haier Geely Motors, Huawei, China Mobile, Baidu. All these companies were made as direct competitors to their high-end overseas competitors. They maybe making great in roads into the markets but are they really pioneering breakthrough technologies? Remember, when the German company Meile comes out with a new fridge design, Haier will probably buy up a dozen and reverse technology their own version, but this is not happening in the 5G fighter plane market. It simply isn’t reasonable to believe that the J-20 is anything but a FIRST GENERATION fighter for China and this will only be the case if all of its parts are designed and manufactured in China.
