The People’s Liberation Army spends a lot of time and effort preparing for limited wars in Asia. Or in their words,
“Win local wars under the conditions of informationization, so as to accomplish its historical missions”. [China’s Defense White Paper 2010]
Due to the complex nature of China and its relationship with the CCP, winning limited wars are seen as necessary stepping-stones to China’s ultimate, glorious destiny and the fulfilling of their ‘historical mission’.
China has four major battle-boxes, which appear below in order of phases,
Phase 1 – Gain control of the South China Sea
Phase 2 – Liberate Taiwan
Phase 3 – Subjugate Japan
Phase 4 – Usurp the United States as the preeminent global hegemony
Every one of these phases could lead to a cataclysmic conflict with the US and its Allies. However the CCP will aim to achieve each phase by deftly pirouetting around the US and trying not to provoke it into a full-blown, protracted war.
Right now China is actively carrying out Phase 1 of its plan. ASEAN countries are on notice that China fully intends to bring the South China Seas under its dominion. In order to do this it will be using a carrot and stick approach with the smaller countries, erstwhile convincing the US that its precious freedom of the seas will not be jeopardized. If this is to proceed as per the Chinese plan, smaller countries like the Philippine, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia will have to contend with an ever-increasing presence of Chinese ‘civilian’ patrol boats harassing their fleets. Ultimately making their lives miserable by shear weight of numbers. As civilian ships, these boats will have strict orders not to escalate situations to the kinetic level, but make China’s presence felt by overwhelming force of numbers and control.
Imagine if you will, a park with one hundred over-zealous parkies (Park-keepers) watching your every move and haranguing you for the slightest infraction of their unilateral rules. Sooner or later you’re going to give up going to the park, unless of course you can raise a ‘gang’ of your own to chase the parkies out. For China the perfect execution of this plan would be over a period of years it finally pushes back other countries from the South China Seas by slowing adding pressure on those that do not comply with its interpretation of Territorial Waters and rewarding those that do.
Divide and conquer at its best. China’s strategist are so slavishly bound to Sun Tzu’s Art of War it makes them highly predictable.
China also realizes that some countries may not be as pliant as others and may need more stick than carrot. Chief amongst these ‘unruly, minor states’ is Vietnam. The PLA knows that it will probably need to fight with Vietnam at some stage to a) bring the unruly state into line with the greater ‘destiny of Asia’ and b) help convince other states that China means business. You can read a dedicated piece on this war here. Due to this belief, the PLA is busy practicing and theorizing on how to win a limited war against Vietnam. If we could be a fly on the wall and peer at the PLA’s to-do-list, defeating Vietnam in a short, sharp, shock and awe war would be the major task of Phase 1. (Note, it’s not entirely guaranteed that the US wouldn’t come to Vietnam’s aid, but in reality, very, very unlikely).
With Vietnam subjugated, other Asian countries compliant and the US still dithering on what it should do, China will proceed to Phase 2 - Recovery of Taiwan.
The PLA now realize that in order to recover Taiwan they not only need to cross the choppy Taiwan Strait, they actually need to control the entire flow of shipping through the South China Seas. China is playing a long game here. This could happen next year or within the decade, but in order for a recovery attempt to succeed the PLA Navy needs to be able to lock down the South China Seas and prevent any swash-buckling cavalry rescue by the US.
| See also | Attack by an ASBM | China’s Cult of Defense | AirSea Battle Part One | Missiles, Missiles, Missiles | Locked in China's sights |
China is now beginning to actively up the stakes for the US Navy with “assassins mace” style weapons, that will keep the hawks in Washington guessing as to whether it really is worth risking so much for isolated Taiwan. Interestingly in Phase 2 of the PLA plan the tone of China’s negotiation will change drastically. If PLA is able to successfully subdue Vietnam, which it is not guaranteed, but if this is the case, Phase 2 will see China’s tone change markedly to a much more confident and aggressive stance. Gone will be the days of veiled threats to US Battle Groups, but replaced by overt threats and warnings that if the US proceeds to enter the South China Seas it will be targeted. A de-facto creeping, embargo on Taiwan will be installed, with vital shipments being delayed and diverted for reasons of safety, which would effectively close an ever-shrinking noose around Taiwan’s neck. With the US at arms length, Taiwan will subject to a much harsher carrot and stick philosophy, with tangible rewards for correct behaviour and significant penalties for wrong behaviour.
Of course, everyone knows that the CCP and the PLA are willing to throw in all their chips to secure Taiwan militarily if need be. However, their plan is not an all or nothing gamble. It’s a calculated, creeping strategy. First control the seas around Taiwan, then slowly tighten the noose imperceptibly with a carrot and stick approach to the Taiwanese government.
Again, all this will take place while holding back the US with the CCP’s all-time favorite tactic, plausible deniability . With the seas secured, the Mainland’s efforts to absorb Taiwan will increase significantly and the US be effectively ‘shut-out’ and facing an up-hill struggle if it wishes to help Taiwan. The CCP will also begin to promote a narrative that Taiwan is drawing ever closer to the Mainland. This may actually be a fact, or not, but for the CCP the important part is to convince the US that risking so much for an island whose public want to reunify is a waste of time. Certainly, the US will not want to sell Taiwan advance arms if it thinks they're going to end up in the PLA's hands in five years without a fight.
If the PLA’s plan works, Taiwan will slowly be strangled into submission without ever creating a real embargo or by engaging in open hostilities. New weapons will not reach it, the US Navy will be at arms length and Taiwan will slowly accept its fate and reunite with the Motherland, peacefully. Furious diplomatic negotiations will take place and the CCP will promise Taiwan all kinds of systems to protect its special nature as part of the PRC and a greater strategic goal will be achieved. China’s confidence level will now be at an all time high and it will not be long before it proceeds to Phase 3 of its plan – subjugate Japan.
With China now controlling Taiwan, the South China Seas and access directly into the Pacific, it wont be long before pressure is put upon Japan’s supply lines. Again, the essence of this strategy will initially be imperceptible inconveniences that slowly put the squeeze on the Japanese economy and supply needs until a kinetic war is unavoidable. At this time the potential level of conflict could be very intense. With China now in full control of the South China Seas its ability to manipulate Japan into a pliable position will have increased significantly. At this time with Japan and China at logger-heads the CCP’s goal will be to convince the US that it does not want to get involved in a war between Asians. It will have been working over-time to sew seeds of discontent between Japan and the US, hoping that the US will not honour its treaty agreements to Japan. The CCP will be aggressively wielding its stick and arguing that the US has no business getting involved in a purely Asian war and it will threaten to go nuclear if the US gets involved. Meanwhile China will be offering carrots of continuing trade and peace between the two ‘great nations,’ if it stays neutral. If the US honours its defense treaty with Japan then Phase 4 of the plan is activated – ultimate showdown with America for global supremacy will commence – there can be only one!
In every one of these stages, China is planning to defeat its adversary using short, high-intensity, limited war strategies with the threat of nuclear strike close to hand, should things not proceed to plan. Despite having being born from the mother of protracted war and resistance, the PLA sees no future in this outdated form of war. Its focus is very firmly on, high velocity, quick-start, quick-end wars with the possibility of nuclear escalation firmly on the table from the off-set of any hostilities. This makes the PLA very, very dangerous. Effectively they are saying, “this is our goal, we want it. How much are you prepared to commit to prevent us from having it?”
Continued in The PLA Goals. Part II
Author: Editor
Copyright © Chimerica War. 2011
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