Why the Shi Lang (Varyag) will never see action

Chinese media is alight with the coming unveiling of China’s first aircraft carrier, Shi Lang (Varyag) and although it may send shivers of discontent through its regional adversaries one has to state, there’s no reason why China shouldn’t have a carrier.

After all, the US, UK, France, Russia, Japan, India, Brazil, Argentina, Canada, Italy, Spain, Australia, Netherlands and Thailand all have had one or more at sometime in history, so why not China now? The simple answer is that there’s no reason why China shouldn’t have one, it has maritime interests and is a burgeoning power and deserves to have an offshore navy.

However, like most things in the Chinese military these days it is set to burst onto the scene with enormous fanfare and hyperbole which unfortunately places it in the realms of ‘unreality’ before it even starts. It is a mistake by the CCP leadership to place the nation’s hopes on a converted, old, Soviet, rust-bucket. However this mistake is already in full swing, with Xinhua describing the ship as embodying “70 years of Chinese hopes".

The ship will be under incredible pressure to speed through the learning curve on how to run a modern day carrier. Add on to this the expectations of 1.2billion people and it is enough to sink any ship. I can’t begin to imagine the pressure the captain and his pilots will be under and that’s just in peacetime.

So, if war should break out, what might we expect from the Shi Lang (Varyag)?

Unfortunately in the annals of maritime history, fate is rarely kind to new-pretenders and their capital ships. One only needs to look at the fates of the Bismark, hunted down and destroyed by the nimbler, more experienced Royal Navy. Or the Yamato class super battleships, picked off by the US airforce, to grasp that capital ships often serve as good target practices and nothing else.

In reality though, I think the Shi Lang’s fate maybe far less heroic and share a fate similar to Veinticinco de Mayo.

For those of you who don’t know, the Veinticinco de Mayo was the Argentinean aircraft carrier that played no role in the Falklands War in 1982. After hearing that the British Task Force was sailing, the De Mayo was put to sea to intercept, but bad weather prevented any attack and it returned to port. Once in port it never left again for the duration of the war.

Why did it stay in port?

Because it knew for sure that it would be sunk by British subs. The British had thrown a 200mile exclusion zone around the Falkland Islands and another Argentinean capital ship, the General Belgrano had been sunk steaming away from the islands, killing 1,500 sailors and sending a clear message to the De Mayo that as soon as it entered deep water it would be hit. British subs had express orders to sink the De Mayo on sight, regardless of its destination.

So that was the end of the De Mayo, it sat out the war, useless, while the British brought in their two carriers Invincible and Hermes and quickly gained air superiority with their superior Sea Harrier jumpjets. 10,000miles from home, the Royal Navy was able to bring superior force to bear on the Argentineans who were just 400 miles away from the battle.

This is nothing to do with luck. It’s about experience, timing and utilization of kit, because having a carrier battle group requires a whole suite of ships to protect it. They’re not a beginners piece of kit. In a small navy, the amount of ships needed to protect a carrier puts huge pressures on the enitre navy. For the carrier to move into hostile territoy takes incredible amounts of coordination.

Unfortunately for the Shi Lang (Varyag) , it will ply its trade in seas infested with the subs of the world’s two most formidable fleets, the US and the Japanese. The Japanese navy cut its teeth on 60 years of Cold War, tracking the best of the Soviet fleet in the seas off Japan, China’s backyard, and the US navy needs no introduction. So, with just an infant anti-submarine fleet the Chinese Southern navy will be easily found wanting, leaving the Shi Lang with little protection, making it highly unlikely that it will ever be able to be brought to the fight.

One may add that the Chinese navy has the largest submarine fleet in the region, with over 60 boats. Surely these will be the counter weight to protect the Shi Lang? But this fleet too, is untested, with only a few boats being truly world class, and don’t forget, in WW2, the German Wolf-packs had more than 300 U-boats, yet they still weren’t able to win the Battle for the Atlantic.

On top of this, the Age of the Carrier is over. We are in the twighlight of the Carrier Strike Group’s power. America knows this and is slowly but surely moving away from them. Long-Range-Unmanned Strike is the future of warfare. Just like the Yamato Class Battleships of WW2 came at the end of the Age of the Battleship, so Shi Lang (Varyag) joins the party too late to make a difference.

I know that I may seem like a party-pooper, but I wager that the Shi Lang (Varyag) wont venture out of port if a serious conflict breaks out within the next 10 years, as the CCP wont want to risk losing it. That’s the price you have to pay when you place the hopes of an entire nation on one ship. China certainly deserves to have a carrier, but it is a mistake to pin the national interest upon a ship that is outdated before the first plane has even taken off.