After the 2008 Financial Meltdown liberal democracy’s capitalist systems were put on notice. No longer were they the preeminent leaders of the global community. Authoritarian, controlled economies, led by China, were the floats that kept the whole system from capsizing. Everyone began to reconsider how the world might be changing and maybe the economic and political power was shifting? Democracies were out, controlled, authoritarian governments we in. China was having its moment in the sun. Without it, the global economy would have ground to an unflattering halt. China’s new found confidence was everywhere, bailing out European countries by buying up their debt and proudly revealing its latest multimillion dollar war-toys.
ERRRRRRRRHH………… not so fast.
That was 2010, this is 2011 and now, not to be left out, authoritarian regimes are having their own meltdown. Just like the west, they didn’t see it coming, even though the signs were everywhere and just like the west, they will never be the same again. If only bankers could go back to a time pre 2008, things would be great, likewise, if only the CCP could continue living the heady days of 2010 then the world would be a better place ...... for them!
Journalists and pundits are falling over themselves to pronounce that what is happening in Egypt could never happen in China, mainly because, China is too efficient at putting down protests at the grass roots and the people want harmony and peace more than revolution. Erh, so you mean just like Egypt was, right up to the point where people lost their fear and suddenly the regime lost all credibility?
The similarities between Egyptians and Chinese are many. Both see themselves as leaders of their regions, both have long proud histories, both have colonial pasts they’d rather forget. Both have had capitalist reforms that have increased the wealth gap between rich and poor. Both have a huge disenfranchised youth cultures. The list goes on. The only thing China has that Egypt doesn't is a control of social media.
Who knows how long the CCP can hold on, 1year, 10 years or 30years, but their destiny is fixed. What’s happening in Egypt will happen in China, it’s not a matter of if, only a matter of when. If Xi Xinping has any sense he will realize that he is staring into “Alice’s looking glass” and seeing the future.
The question is, will China’s military treat its citizens like the Egyptian military?
Not only are we getting a glimpse into China’s future, but we’re also seeing the dismantling of the CCPs present dream. For the past two years, hot of the back of the financial meltdown, Chinese leaders have pushed an alternative worldview to counter the liberal democratic consensus. The group of ‘non attendees’ at the Noble Peace Prize, represented a more authoritarian world, where controlled economies and controlled populations supposedly contributed to a safer more friendlier place to live.
Well ….. not so much.
Here’s the list of 'non attendees' - Russia, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Serbia, Iraq, Iran, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Venezuela, the Philippines, Egypt, Sudan, Ukraine, Cuba and Morocco.
As you can see, both Egypt and Tunisia are there and Sudan is no longer one country, represented by the oppressive northern, pro-China government. All the other governments have their authoritarian skeletons in the cupboards that could jump out at anytime.
Just like 2008 was a cataclysmic sea-change for the financial markets, so 2011 represents the collapse of this authoritarian, utopian dream for China.
But does China know it yet?
The unrest in Egypt couldn't have come at a better time for China - Chinese New Year. Everyone, was much too busy to be bothered, which has made it very easy for the CCP to ignore it. But ignore it, it can't. It will be interesting to see if China's foreign policy changes in the future, because whatever moral/economic prerogative it had just went up in smoke in Egypt.
No comments:
Post a Comment