STRATFOR China Director Jennifer Richmond says the Jasmine protests do not pose an existential threat to the Communist Party of China, but illustrate a new and significant ability to organize across provinces.
Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.
The second round of “Jasmine” rallies was held across cities in China on Feb. 27. This comes a week after the first round on Feb. 20 happened after an anonymous letter was posted on Boxun.com encouraging Chinese citizens to gather peacefully in protest of the Chinese Communist Party and in support of political reform. We see this happening as revolutions and protests have rocked the Middle East, however we do not see a contagion effect happening in China. At the same time, there’s a growing disenchantment with the Chinese Communist Party over issues like rising inflation. The timing seems right for people to try to carve out some political space.
The foundation of the Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy has been economic growth for the past 30 years. Economic growth, and not ideology, has bolstered its authority and when economic growth wanes, the voices of the disenchanted become more audible. We have seen protests rising across China in the past few years, but most of these protests remained isolated over a single issue. What’s most significant about the Jasmine rallies is they have been able to organize cross-provincially over a single issue of political reform. The state has responded to these calls for organization with a massive crackdown on all information pertaining to the Jasmine rallies. They’ve gone so far as even to block “Jon Huntsman,” the U.S. ambassador’s name in China, who was seen at the Wangfujing Beijing protest on Feb. 20. Citizens and activists have been rounded up and journalists have been roughed up, underlining the Communist Party’s concern for these rallies.
So far the organizers of the Jasmine rallies remain unknown but are soon to be dissident outside of China. They’ve been undaunted by the security crackdown and continue to call for these protests every Sunday, and they’ve also found innovative and creative ways to get around the censors. For example, after the Feb. 20 protest, the first protest, for the second protest they suggested calling them “liang hui,” which means “two meetings.” The two meetings which actually begin this week are the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and the National People’s Congress. By using the term “liang hui,” censoring this term would not only censor anything pertaining to the Jasmine rallies but would also censor these two upcoming very important meetings, which would not be in the central government’s best interest. Moreover, at these meetings get under way this week, security is already going to be very tight.
As sensitivities within the state government grow, the margin for error in showing restraint gets slimmer. We’ve seen the Chinese government show restraint particularly this past week on Feb. 27, where they used cleaning crews mainly to disperse the crowd versus any show of outward force. And, in general, both the Chinese Communist Party and the domestic citizens want to avoid a revolution. However, as China continues to face up mounting economic troubles, the Chinese Communist Party faces a growing legitimacy crisis, and if it is unable to properly manage the economic troubles that it faces, this may give rise to a more coherent and organized group unlike the Jasmine protest that has the ability to actually form an opposition to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s authority.
Attribution to www.stratfor.com
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