Dispatch: China's 'Jasmine' Rallies

STRATFOR China Director Jennifer Richmond says the Jasmine protests do not pose an existential threat to the Communist Party of China, but illustrate a new and significant ability to organize across provinces.

Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.

The second round of “Jasmine” rallies was held across cities in China on Feb. 27. This comes a week after the first round on Feb. 20 happened after an anonymous letter was posted on Boxun.com encouraging Chinese citizens to gather peacefully in protest of the Chinese Communist Party and in support of political reform. We see this happening as revolutions and protests have rocked the Middle East, however we do not see a contagion effect happening in China. At the same time, there’s a growing disenchantment with the Chinese Communist Party over issues like rising inflation. The timing seems right for people to try to carve out some political space.

The foundation of the Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy has been economic growth for the past 30 years. Economic growth, and not ideology, has bolstered its authority and when economic growth wanes, the voices of the disenchanted become more audible. We have seen protests rising across China in the past few years, but most of these protests remained isolated over a single issue. What’s most significant about the Jasmine rallies is they have been able to organize cross-provincially over a single issue of political reform. The state has responded to these calls for organization with a massive crackdown on all information pertaining to the Jasmine rallies. They’ve gone so far as even to block “Jon Huntsman,” the U.S. ambassador’s name in China, who was seen at the Wangfujing Beijing protest on Feb. 20. Citizens and activists have been rounded up and journalists have been roughed up, underlining the Communist Party’s concern for these rallies.

So far the organizers of the Jasmine rallies remain unknown but are soon to be dissident outside of China. They’ve been undaunted by the security crackdown and continue to call for these protests every Sunday, and they’ve also found innovative and creative ways to get around the censors. For example, after the Feb. 20 protest, the first protest, for the second protest they suggested calling them “liang hui,” which means “two meetings.” The two meetings which actually begin this week are the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and the National People’s Congress. By using the term “liang hui,” censoring this term would not only censor anything pertaining to the Jasmine rallies but would also censor these two upcoming very important meetings, which would not be in the central government’s best interest. Moreover, at these meetings get under way this week, security is already going to be very tight.

As sensitivities within the state government grow, the margin for error in showing restraint gets slimmer. We’ve seen the Chinese government show restraint particularly this past week on Feb. 27, where they used cleaning crews mainly to disperse the crowd versus any show of outward force. And, in general, both the Chinese Communist Party and the domestic citizens want to avoid a revolution. However, as China continues to face up mounting economic troubles, the Chinese Communist Party faces a growing legitimacy crisis, and if it is unable to properly manage the economic troubles that it faces, this may give rise to a more coherent and organized group unlike the Jasmine protest that has the ability to actually form an opposition to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s authority.

Attribution to www.stratfor.com

Why the Jasmine Protests in China are an enormous success

After listening to a well-known, local China commentator exhort on RTHK that the “Jasmine Revolutions in China aren’t working,” I feel I have to immediately present an argument to the contrary.

Fortunately for revolutions, they don’t have to rely on out-of-date commentators for ideas on how to frighten an authoritarian government.

According to the commentator, he suggested that the heavy Chinese clamp down in Beijing had achieved its goal of nipping any pro-democracy protests in the bud. This kind of limited thinking is trapped in the mindset that protests are only successful if we see 10,000 unarmed people being ruffed up by over-zealous, masochistic, security-police. As practically no protesters turned up to the Wangfujing yesterday, and the international media was too busy being roughed up itself to get any shots of placard waving democracy protesters, then the CCP won. The protests were stamped out.

However this couldn’t be further from the truth. The Jasmine Protests in Beijing were a stunning success, and here’s why…

Firstly, we have to ask, what is the purpose of an anti-government protest?

Is it to get beaten up and make great news?

Of course not!

Protests are designed to make an unresponsive, unapproachable government sit up and take note. This can happen in many ways. Recently in the Middle East it has taken the form of tens of thousands of people going to the street. For the most part it seems to be working, but this form of protest is not suitable for China at the moment. As we all know, the CCP has already killed unarmed democracy protesters once in the past and there’s no reason to believe they wouldn't do it again to protect their ever growing, selfish interests. If it was good enough for paramount leader Deng Xiao Ping, it certainly would be good enough for this generation of mediocre leaders, who are wrestling to hang on to power in and ever changing China, that sees them being slowly sidelined.

The extreme lengths the authorities went through to crack down shows how frightened the CCP is. A CNN report described seeing hundreds of police cars, an unknown amount of plain and regular security forces, mysterious building sites popping up and water trucks blocking the main shopping through-way in the nation’s capital. Officials may pat themselves on the back for thwarting the protests, but they’re just too foolish to realize that they were the protest. It didn’t need thousands of people on the street to prove how desperate and weak the government is, the security forces happily demonstrated this.

Protest by proxy… it is beyond sublime.

For a protest to work, it doesn't need loads of shouting people. There are many ways to protest, and they're effective if the government takes note, which it clearly did.

China is famous for putting spin on all manner of things and dubbing it, “Chinese characteristics.” Well, I do believe the organizers have created a whole new way of protesting with “Chinese characteristics,” that puts its fragile government on notice. The beauty of this style of proxy-protest is that the protesters don’t even need to show up to make their point heard. If the Jasmine revolution can succeed with applying the pressure on the government to close down significant parts of Beijing on the threat that there may be a protest then they have them on the run.

After all, if we read what the protesters want, they request a government free from corruption that is governed by the people. Now, if the governments only answer to this is to oppress the people further then their argument is vindicated and their protest is highly successful.

Meanwhile, not only are they successful in turning Beijing on its head as leagues of security men try to catch mystery protesters in the shopping districts of Beijing, the Jasmine Revolutions are making the Great Firewall look ridiculous. They have hijack more and more search terms that for the most part are just simple generic terms. Whether by design or accident, this is the greatest attack on internet censorship China has ever had and is a testament to the supple skill of the protest organizers.

Modern China is reinventing the art of protest in the face of the more and more draconian measures by the CCP to cling on to power.

It’s a David and Goliath struggle, and we all know how that ended.

Jasmine Revolution in China???

So, reports are trying to suggest that the call for a Jasmine Revolution in China have been created by the CCP to snag all the pro-democracy protesters early.

Personally, I don't believe they're that brave or smart... but here's the full translation, you can make your own mind up whether it's a genuine call for Jasmine Revolution or a disingenuous move by CCP

ENGLISH TRANSLATION for Jasmine Revolution in China

In an open letter, the organizers of the “Jasmine Rallies” have called on the people to gather every Sunday at 2:00 p.m. to push for an end to corruption, an independent judiciary, and a government supervised by the people. The letter urges people to participate in an act of non-violent non-cooperation” by “strolling, watching or pretending to pass by.” Open Letter to the National People’s Congress from the Organizers of the Chinese Jasmine Rallies [English Translation by Human Rights in China] First, we would like to thank every participant of the Jasmine Rallies. Your participation has already made the authoritarian government very nervous. Your presence has made the Chinese government understand that they must choose between these two paths:

1. The Chinese government will genuinely fight corruption and accept the supervision of the people.

2. Suppress popular protest, continue corruption, and continue to refuse the supervision of the people. Every Chinese person with dreams hopes that China will become prosperous, rich, and powerful, that the people will not have to worry about food and clothing, that the government is upright and honest, and that the judiciary is impartial and just. But twenty years have passed [since the 1989 Democracy Movement], and what we are witnessing is a government that grows more corrupt by the day, government officials who collude with vested interests, and a citizenry that has not benefitted from the reform, opening up, and economic development. On the contrary, the people have to endure high goods and housing prices, and do not have health care, education, or benefits for the elderly. An what about ten years from now? Will we face a government even more corrupt? A judicial system even more opaque? Will vested interests give up their vested interest? Every good and honest Chinese person, please think: So much public housing has been sold to individuals, so many state-owned enterprises and so much land have been sold, and nearly all state-owned property has been sold off. But where has all the money from these sales gone? It goes without saying that state-owned property belongs to the entire people. But what did the people get? Led by an authoritarian regime, the opaque process of privatization has made a small number of people rich, but what did the vast number of ordinary people get? Every good and honest Chinese person, please think: When Japan, Korea, and Taiwan were in the process of industrializing, they were able to make the overwhelming majority of their people prosperous. Why is it that during China’s industrialization the ordinary people are becoming poorer? Why is it that in just the last few decades China has gone from being a country with the smallest gap between the rich and the poor to one with the largest? It is because the unfair system has made a small number of people incredibly wealthy, and the vast majority of people remain poor.

Every good and honest Chinese person, please think: Every year the government uses public money to eat and drink, buy cars, visit foreign places, and raise salaries for officials; yet it doesn’t have money to spend on health care, education, benefits for the elderly, or other basic needs. The vast majority of Chinese people do not have basic health care, education, or benefits for the elderly. Not to mention Europe, America, Japan, or Korea; our welfare system is far behind those of India, Russia, or Brazil. When other countries use the majority of their tax money for the welfare of their people, where does our tax money go? Every good and honest Chinese person, please think: At present the renminbi ranks first among world currencies in terms of quantity in circulation. This serious “over-issuing” of currency has brought about a vicious cycle of inflation inside China. The excessive printing of currency is recklessly diluting the value of the people’s wealth. Because the renminbi is not an international currency, it is China’s ordinary citizens who are out of luck. The meager income of China’s ordinary people must support goods and housing prices similar to those in Europe and America. On the one hand the government excessively prints money, and on the other hand it uses administrative means to keep housing prices low is this some sort of mockery?

Every good and honest Chinese person, please think: It is a matter of course that officials, when disclosing their wealth, should accept the supervision of the people, and that the government, when publishing details of tax revenues, should accept the supervision of the people. However, the Chinese people have no such power. We have been waiting for decades. Even if we wait for another ten years, we will not be able to get this kind of power. Should we keep on waiting? Are you willing to wait another 10 years, 20 years, 30 years? In short, without pressure from the people, absolutely no authoritarian government would take the initiative to respect the people or accept the people’s supervision. What we need to do now is to put pressure on the Chinese ruling party. If the party does not conscientiously fight corruption and accept the supervision of the people, then will it please exit the stage of history. We call upon each Chinese person who has a dream for China to bravely come out to take an afternoon stroll at two o’clock on Sundays to look around. Each person who joins in will make it clear to the Chinese ruling party that if it does not fight corruption, if the government does not accept their supervision, the Chinese people will not have the patience to wait any longer. We do not necessarily have to overthrow the current government. As long as the government fights corruption, the government and officials accept the people’s supervision, the government is sincere about solving the problems regarding judicial independence and freedom of expression and gives a timetable, we can give the ruling party time to solve the problems. We can call a stop to the strolling activities. We have been waiting for decades, if the government is sincere about solving the problem, we do not mind waiting a little longer. However, if the government is not sincere about solving the problems, but only wants to censor the Internet and block information to suppress the protests, the protests will only get stronger. As more and more people find out about “jasmine rallies,” there will definitely be more and more Chinese people joining in. We don’t care if we implement a one party system, a two party system, or even a three party system; but we are resolute in asking the government and the officials to accept the supervision of ordinary Chinese people, and we must have an independent judiciary. This is our fundamental demand.

We do not support violent revolution; we continue to support non- violent non-cooperation. We invite every participant to stroll, watch, or even just pretend to pass by. As long as you are present, the authoritarian government will be shaking with fear.

China belongs to every Chinese person, not to any political party. China’s future will be decided by every person. We ask that the government and officials accept the supervision of the people, that the details of tax collection be published, and that taxes are genuinely "collected from the people, and used for the people." These basic requests are not the least bit excessive. For our country’s future, for the fundamental rights of our children and future generations, please bravely come out. The Chinese people’s thirst for freedom and democracy is unstoppable (as Wen Jiabao said during an interview on CNN). If you are unable to participate in the strolls, please tell every Chinese person near you: We need an upright and honest government. We need the right to supervise government tax collection. We need the right to scrutinize officials’ wealth. We need the right to publicly criticize the government. These are the fundamental rights of every Chinese person. Please tell every Chinese person near you: Non-violent non-cooperation is the only path for Chinese democratization. Please use word-of-mouth to break through the news blackout and come show your support.

The Chinese people rely on themselves to fight for their rights. We should not even dream that an authoritarian regime would take the initiative to award us these rights. Please joinus in non-violent non-cooperation to make the Chinese government respect the basic rights of the Chinese people.

Time: Every Sunday starting on February 20, 2011 at 2 pm. (If the

Chinese government is sincere about solving problems such as corruption and public supervision, we will send out a notice

stopping the action.)

Rally Locations:

Beijing: in front of the McDonald’s on Wangfujing Street

Shanghai: in front of Peace Cinema at People’s Square

Tianjin: below the Drum Tower

Nanjing, [Jiangsu Province]: the entrance of Silk Street

Department Store at the Drum Tower Square

Xi’an, [Shaanxi Province]: the entrance of Carrefour on Beida

Street

Chengdu, [Sichuan Province]: under the Statue of Chairman Mao

at Tianfu Square

6

Changsha, [Hunan Province]: the entrance of Xindaxin Building at

Wuyi Square

Hangzhou, [Zhejiang Province]: the entrance of Hangzhou

Department Store at Wulin Square

Guangzhou, [Guangdong Province]: in front of the Starbucks at the

People’s Park

Shenyang, [Liaoning Province]: in front of the KFC at North

Nanjing Street

Changchun, [Jilin Province]: in front of Corogo Supermarket at

Democratic Avenue of West Culture Square

Harbin, [Heilongjiang Province]: in front of Harbin Cinema

Wuhan, [Hubei Province]: in front of the McDonald’s at Jiefang

Avenue and the World Trade Plaza

People who are in cities not listed here, please go to the central square of your city.

We ask websites to help spread this statement, thank you!

One of the organizers of China Jasmine Rallies (Posted on Boxun by a friend on February 21, 2011.)

The Generation Game

The boys and girls working on the Great Fire Wall must be busy these days. First it was removing all references to Egypt and Tunisia but now the “democratic thing” seems to be sweeping through the entire region. Algeria, Libya, Bahrain, Morocco, Yemen and Iran, who’s to say where it will all end? Why, the Chinese 'protectors of consciousness' should probably just consider omitting the word ‘Arab’ from the Motherland’s intranet and be done with it.

The new G2, the US and China are both struggling to get a handle on things in 2011 and must be wishing for the calm, predictable days of 2010. The US foreign policy seems to be bouncing around like a kiddy in a candy store,

“We love democracy. Ay, but we love user-friendly authoritarian governments to too, oh, which to choose, which to choose? Can I have both, daddy?

Meanwhile, China is skulking up the corner like a moody teenager as it sees its global dream of authoritarian capitalism, led by it, literally go up in smoke as one model authoritarian government after another gets ravaged and seduced by the high school hunk, Democracy.

So, will the unrest spread to China?

Probably not, not yet anyway.

You see, it’s a generation thing and China hasn’t peaked. Economists would like you to believe that as long as there’s growth then there will be stability. The CCP is betting ‘big-time’ on this maxim and so keeps churning out the rhetoric on all the things Chinese people have now and didn’t have back then and how it could all be lost very quickly.

For sure, in places like Egypt and Tunisia, the dictators tried to use the same ‘development’ card,

“Look how far we’ve come with me in power.”

But it didn’t work, because in reality they hadn’t really come far at all. No one can say this about China. When the CCP extorts how much life has changed, everyone agrees, because it’s true.

Those approaching retirement now in China, were once Red Guards, or suffered in the Cultural Revolution, they know how bad things can get.

Their children were then the ‘children of opportunity.’ As reforms opened up in China, the kids born in the 70s and 80s were the ones that rolled up their sleeves and really began to create the new China. In the 90s and 00s these hard working Chinese grafted in sweat shops and factories to buy houses in their hometowns, TVs , refrigerators and toys and for their children. Earning 500 a month in a Guangdong textile factory was infinitely better than stay at home and starving.

The GenYs, those born in the late 80s and 90s, despite suffering from the malaise of the Information Age, still get it. They know what their parents went through to provide them with nice homes, education and opportunities. Deep down, they know the system is wrong, they know it’s unfair and full of social injustice, but they also don’t want to risk losing what they have. So, no one could describe them as contented citizens, but they’re not revolutionaries. It’s not in their blood to rebel. It’s their responsibility to live the life their parents worked so hard to create for them. So, they wont throw it all away over some whimsical notion like democracy or social justice.

But…

It’s the GenZs you need to look out for… who can tell what they will want from their lives?

They are suitably removed from all levels of chaos and suffering to be hot in the veins once more. This is the “Generation Game” that the CCP is playing and has played out in China for centuries.

Right now the ‘fix-all panacea’ of growth and stability definitely appeals to a broad spectrum of society, from the hopeful GenY to the retiring old Red Guard. It’s a case of “use it or lose it,” and millions of Chinese are not prepared to lose it... not yet.

But GenZs?

As yet it’s not clear what they want, but I’ll guess that it wont be more of the same of what their parents and their parents before them suffered. It will be the choices of the GenZs that shape the future of China, as they wont be as compliant as generations that have gone before them. Which means it is not the time of the 'princelings' led by Xi Xinping, who are now jockeying for power, thinking it's their time in the sun. Their life of luxury will end with the GenZs.

Rich and Chan, Best Buddies?

Some nationalistic people may think that my writing is anti-Chinese, but before you decide, consider the following allegoric story.

-------------------------------

Rich and Chan were best buddies and always watched each other’s backs.

Chan had a cute, little girlfriend called Tai. One day Tai ran off with the local gym owner, Tyson. Tyson, was a gnarly, old fighter with muscles on his muscles and experienced at breaking people’s skulls. He didn’t really care too much for Tai and just dallied with her for his own amusement and also to see how much it enraged Chan, who he saw as his younger competitor.

Every time Chan saw Tyson and Tai together he would fly into an uncontrollable rage. He promised himself he would get revenge upon Tyson and win back Tai, if it was the last thing he ever did.

At Chan’s suggestion, they both joined Tyson’s gym. Rich thought it would be a cool way to get fit and meet some hot-chicks, but for Chan, it only served one purpose. It was all part of his revenge plan to win back Tai. Both Rich and Chan worked hard at the gym and were soon fit looking guys, but for Chan, it wasn’t enough. He wanted bigger muscles, ones that could match Tyson’s pound for pound. So, he started looking around for people who could help him. At the same time, Chan landed a great job and started earning lots of money. Chan’s plan to avenge himself on Tyson and win back Tai now had no bounds. He had limitless money, and so people, who didn’t have Chan’s best interest at heart, but rather his money, started supplying and promising all kinds of things.

“Yeah man, if you ever get into trouble with Tyson, we’ll help you, for sure. Erh, can you lend me a $100?”

“Dude, if you really want to beat Tyson, then you have to take these drugs. They cost $1000.”

By now, Chan’s mind and body was so full of weak promises and body enhancing drugs that he stopped listening to his best mate, Rich.

“Hey, let’s go out and party tonight? Pull some chicks and have fun.” Rich would suggest.

But Chan was not interested, all he wanted to do was go to the gym, so that one day he could match up to Tyson, beat him and win back Tai.

Oh, by the way, so much time had passed by now that Tai wasn’t even seeing Tyson anymore. In fact she was spending most of her time with Chan, who she secretly still loved, but Chan couldn’t see it because he was still too angry. Tyson would occasionally give her gifts, which would send Chan into another downward spiral of anger and hatred.

Rich would try to counsel Chan,

“Dude, Tai’s yours man, all you have to do is accept her for who she is and you can be together.”

But Chan wouldn’t listen. The only way in his heart he could take back Tai is by humiliating Tyson in a fight and regaining the face he had lost. For him, this was the only way Tai would respect him. So their relationship remained stunted for years. What a pity.

One day the time came, Chan looked in the mirror, he saw his huge bulging muscles, full of youth and vitality. He looked over at Tyson, who looked tired and slightly off colour. Now was HIS time. Time to teach Tyson the long awaited lesson for the loss of face he’d suffered all these years. As the argument between Tyson and Chan escalated, everyone in the gym took sides. Many of Chan’s pretend friends encouraged him on.

“Yeah man, you can have Tyson now, you can be the new man on the block.”

But really they didn’t care, they only cared about the money they made from him and how much more money they could make from him if he was the new number one.

Only Rich and Tai stood in the way of Tyson and Chan fighting.

“Dude!” Rich cried, “It’s not worth it. You could lose everything. Think about it. Look at us, we’re good looking guys, we can have any girl we want. Why are you going to throw it all away over this crazy bitterness you've held all these years? Plus, Tai is yours, she loves you. Just accept her, and let go of the anger.”

Tai was standing right next to Chan and pleaded with him not to fight. "Chan, I love you, but you have to let go of the anger."

But Chan could not hear his best buddies, Rich or Tai. He pushed them aside and lashed out at Tyson’s face with a wicked left hook.

For a few minutes it looked like Tyson was going to go down, Chan’s youth, vitality and passion burst out in a vicious onslaught. But Tyson was a tried and tested, old fighter. He slowly rallied until he reigned down the most ferocious of all attacks upon Chan. In the melee Tai was also hit and lay on the floor struggling for life.

By the end of the fight, Chan’s ‘pretend’ friends had all slipped away, realizing that Tyson had comprehensively won and was still number one. Only Rich was left to help Chan and Tai to the hospital.

Tai died from her head injuries and Chan had suffered so terribly that he was never able to recover to his former self.

Old Tyson got off scott-free, because he was able to convince the court that it was Chan that attacked him, so he was only acting in self-defense. As for Tai’s death, the court was not able to prove whether it was Chan or Tyson that hit her, so he got away with that too.

Rich had done everything he could to prevent the fight, but it just wasn’t enough, because Chan’s hatred was just too great. Rich was Chan's greatest buddy and supporter and tried everything he knew to get Chan off his self-destructive path of bitterness.

THE END

For those of you who are really no good at Allegoric stories.

Rich is me, or any other China watcher who loves China and doesn’t want to see in get into a war it can’t win

Chan is obviously China

Tai is Taiwan

And of cause Old Tyson is the United States and its Pacific allies.

Oh, and all of the ‘weasel’ friends that Chan made are all the authoritarian regimes that say they’ll support China, but in reality are as good as useless.

China’s ‘Great Leap Forward’ - in weapons

Bigger, better, faster, smarter and more of them… That’s the feeling in the Chinese arms industry these days. To say it’s having a golden period is an understatement.

After a couple of decades down in the Doldrums, overshadowed by the more reliable Russian arms industry, the Chinese government is now opening up its purse strings to Chinese companies that can help defend its newly stated ‘core interests.’

The Chinese defense industry is booming as illustrated by the Global Times headline recently - Revelation shows China's 'military transparency, New missile 'ready by 2015' The fact that the article doesn’t state precisely what the missiles are for, how they would work, or on who, is irrelevant. What matters, is that China is making new missiles that can do anything and beat anyone. The propaganda machine is in full over drive militarizing the nation’s consciousnesses. Don’t believe me? Well, what about considering China Daily’s Top 10 military exercises of 2010 article?

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010topten/2010-12/14/content_11666739.ht

The entire article is beyond absurd, unless of course you’re an authoritarian government attempting to militarize your population, then it makes complete sense. In the past two decades TV shows about great engineering achievements were commonplace on prime time TV. Glorifying the engineering achievements of the Motherland, led in most part by the country being run by engineers. As the huge engineering projects dry up and people are now accustomed to roads, rail, dams and skyscrapers on epic scale, there is now a shift to the military. The Chinese government is pushing a military wave that will sweep the nation. Everyone is expected to catch it and rejoice in the fact that it’s home grown and will make China great.

No doubt about it, China is experiencing a ‘Great Leap Forward’ in weapons manufacturing and will soon over take many established military powers across the world.

But hold on a minute….

The original Great Leap Forward, by anyone’s measure, was a total disaster. From 1958 to 1961 Chairmen Mao came up with the wildly unrealistic notion that China could surpass long, established industrial nations like Britain in steel and crop production. What proceeded was a wave of hysteria as anything metal was melted down in backyard furnaces to make useless steel. In the countryside fields were left unattended while people tended their furnaces, which resulted in millions starving when the harvests failed. In newly formed communes, paddy fields were crammed full of crops and made to look like they were yielding way above their capacity. The crops died, leading to even more deaths. The resulting famine was the greatest human loss of life ever on planet earth. Up to 30million people died, and all because CCP leaders demanded that China, jump and leap-frog through history and pull miracles out of the air in order to be bigger and better than the west. Characteristically, official CCP history takes hardly any blame for the mess and blames American sanctions and disasters for the absurd folly.

As we can clearly see from history, directives from up on high in China can have the ability to cause hysteria, that without reasonable democratic checks, can run rampant and create all kinds of ridiculous claims.

Now, I’m not saying that the Chinese weapon manufacturers are involved in anything like the madness that was witnessed in the original Great Leap Forward, but consider this…

The Chinese government is flush with cash and willing to fund companies that can create weapon systems that add to its intended lofty, global projection. The technical hurdles needed to achieve these weapons are large and take numerous generations to achieve. China intends to do all this in just decades, namely by reverse engineering and leap-frogging.

Despite the hurdles being large, if you were a Chinese arms company, faced with the prospect of multi-million dollar investments if you can achieve these goals are you going to;

a) Be realistic and risk losing the investment to competitor

b) Clearly state that it’s achievable and worry about the technical details once the money is in the bank

Now, the more scrupulous of us, may choose A, but don’t forget, China is a country where even baby’s milk is fair game to exploit financially, so why would we expect high moral standards from arms manufacturers who are currently in the middle of a boom-time funding period?

On top of this there is funding competition between the different branches of the armed services. This is not unique to China. Every country’s military has to balance the funding expectations of their armed services. However in China, there is a significant difference. As stated previously, it’s boom time for military investment in the Middle Kingdom. With the CCP’s coffers full to bursting with hard cash any project that can boost the nation’s national interest is in the running for big bucks. This kind of inter-service rivalry can get way out of hand if unchecked.

Consider…

• The PLA Navy wants funds for new ships to keep those pesky Americans out of the Chinese seas.
• The 2^nd Artillery thinks it can do a job better shooing away the yanks with missiles.
• The PLAAF needs funds for its Stealth bomber fleet
• Leaving the backbone of the force, the poor old army needing to come up with some ‘cool’ futuristic plan to show that it can contribute to the nations defense and not get left behind with its dull, old tanks, trucks and boots on the ground
  

Everyone is shouting for funds. Everyone’s idea is better than the other’s, serves the national interest better and will help make China great. Cadre’s are going to want kick-backs on all this and help their guanxi circles. With all the money sloshing around the service that can shout the loudest, promise the most is more than likely going to reap the rewards, financially.

Through all this noise they’re expected to create some of the most sophisticated weapons on the planet.

Now, I’m not saying it’s not achievable. Some good stuff is probably getting made, but just like every other big idea the CCP comes up with there’s going to be a whole lot of promises broken, money wasted and ideas forgotten and who will be the loser here?

The Chinese people.

Due to the fact that the CCP, yes, those same guys who brought you the Great Leap Forward, the Third Front and the Cultural Revolution, have no ability to create checks and balances on ridiculous ideas, we can say with a fair amount of certainty that a lot of the hype really is just… well, hype.

And in wartime, the people of China will cry, "where are our stealth bombers, our carrier killer missiles and advanced navy?"

And true to form the CCP will not be accountable for all the money it wasted, funding projects that were clearly overstated or never even possible.

So, should China militarize? Of course it should.

Should it have military that it can be proud of? Certainly.

Should we believe the hype? No, not at all.

If it sounds too good to be true it probably is. As was clearly demonstrated by the Great Leap Forward, things in life have a tendency to move in tiny incremental steps and not great leaps.

Does China need Facebook?

If you find yourself, like me, glued to the 24hr news channels in this tumultuous year of the bunny, then you’ll probably have sifted through gaggles of pundits all expressing their unique angle on regime after regime that is experiencing problems. Admittedly, I know little about the Middle East, but I have been to China a few times and the most absurd opinion I’ve heard recently is that, “Chinese people don’t need or want Facebook or Twitter.”

Basically the premise is, China’s own ‘in-house’ generic copies fulfill all the needs of the Chinese population when it comes to social media. In fact, China’s social network sites are better, with more features than Facebook and Twitter, therefore, making them obsolete in a market that is now well established. The internal Chinese market just isn’t the same as the global market and the Chinese consumer prefers a locally, controlled Chinese-style social media rather than a free, unfettered social media.

Well, no…

Firstly, if Facebook or Twitter were allowed in China it would race through the system like wildfire, there’s no doubt about it.

After all, Facebook was allowed in China for many years. When I was first running by business in Tibet, Facebook was the best place to advertise because the 'Tibet' word was just too sensitive on Chinese search engines, so often my website would be blocked, and I was only running a guesthouse, which had absolutely nothing to do with Free Tibet movement.

If we think back as to why Facebook got banned it all started after the riots in Tibet in 2008 and the approaching Olympics. Facebook was awash with groups arguing their point of views. If I recall correctly the Free Tibet site went from about 30,000 members to about 200,000 in just a few weeks. On the Chinese nationalist side, no site was more prominent than the, Tibet was, is, and always will be part of China group. This group was the front lines of the Tibet/China Facebook battle. It was hardcore Free-Tibeters going head to head with China nationalists in a no holds barred slanging match. Interestingly though, many of the most ardent Chinese nationalists were Chinese students studying abroad, especially in US universities. It seems that as the Olympics approached, they felt compelled to defend their country against what they saw as a blatant attack by the Free Tibet movement on China’s achievements. Which of cause it blatantly was. With China having so many skeletons in the cupboard, the Free Tibet movement wasn’t going to allow China to have a 'world party' without a bit of mud slinging.

So, one would have thought that the CCP would have loved this show of national pride by its overseas flock of die-hard nationalists? But no. The CCP saw both sides with equal fear. For here on Facebook there was unfettered, uncontrolled emotion on two very polarized sides and the CCP had no control over any of it. The Free Tibeters were systematically dismantling the Chinese propaganda on Tibet for all to see. Conversely, the nationalists were getting more and more irate and vocal. It was a true melting pot, with temperatures of 1000 degrees and up.

The CCP knew that it had to do something; both the Free Tibeters and nationalists were equally as volatile and needed to be controlled.

However, it wasn’t until the Uighur riots in Urumqi in 2009 did the great firewall come down and end the Facebook free-for-all-punch-up. The men at the top weren’t going to allow such free reign of ideas clash again, so openly. Absolute control was needed, not only to prevent people from organizing but simply just talking or arguing about it was too much. Social media went into lock down and that is where it remains today.

And this is the ace in the CCP’s hand, I’ve heard TV and internet pundits say that the reason why China is not going to be rocked by social revolution is because it is too quick to crack down on grass roots organizations or that it can control people’s emotions through making Japan the convenient enemy. To my mind these are just contributory factors, the principle reason why China will be able to keep itself out of the fray, for now, is because it controls social media and the internet.

However this is changing. Even now, forces in the ‘Free World’ have been awoken to the power of the Internet like never before. Everyone had their suspicions that it was an authoritarian regimes Achilles heel, but the regimes did such a good job of controlling it.

But not now.

A whole new dimension of the internet has been let out of the genie bottle. In the future you’ll be seeing a lot more investment into technologies that can allow unfettered Internet access despite main servers or firewalls attempting to block it.

I’m no tech-geek, but look out, the future will see massive investment by democratic countries in peer to peer networks, via un-jamable satellites, or other modes of communication that will allow people in closed countries easy access to the internet, despite their governments attempts to block it.

The Internet as a soft weapon has been born in 2011 and coming to an authoritarian regime near you – SOON!

Change is ah coming...

Fortunately for the world, the events in Egypt have shown that there is such a thing as universal human rights and freedoms, despite what the multitude of crony-fied regimes dotted across the world will tell us. In reality the only people who prophesize about “how certain races are not suited to individual freedoms” are those regimes that personally prosper and enjoy unlimited freedoms at the expense of others.

It’s a myth that Chinese, Egyptians, Asians or Arabs can’t have democracy, as it doesn’t suit their cultures.

The Egyptian Revolution is a triumph for humanity. Of course, there is still a long, hard road for the Egyptians to enjoy to greater freedom. One could say that the journey has now, only just begun, and it could still be hijacked by those with darker, authoritarian ambitions. However, this does not take anything away from what was achieved in the past 18 days. The right to express oneself, choose life, live in peace, free from fear or harassment from others or the state is a basic human right. Democracy may have its short-comings, but at the moment it represents the best way to achieve these freedoms. I am truly happy that we didn’t see another Tiannamen Square disaster. On many occasions young Chinese people have asked me what really happened at Tiannamen and it’s hard to convey to them the events and the way the world saw it back then. But now we can. For those Chinese who were lucky enough to watch the revolution in Egypt on TV, then I can say, it was almost the same. The only difference was that in 1989, we also had to watch all the peaceful protestors die as the square was brutally cleared by an army that had been ironically created to protect the people. Those that can remember Tainnamen, worried that we would be seeing this all over again in Egypt in the 21^st Century, but fortunately it didn’t happen, and instead of shock and digust, we’re witnessing happiness and revelry.

In reality, authoritarian regimes are the product of the Cold War. Propped up in order to preserve one side’s interpretation of the status quo. Hopefully we’re seeing a re-shifting of this mentality. For China, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) heady-dream that economically viable, authoritarian regimes were the future of the world in this century is now dead in the water. It remains to be seen whether the CCP can be adaptable, as is the Chinese way, and truly create meaningful reforms towards democracy and dual party politics that truly represents the views of the people. The CCP craves multi-polar politics and denounces hegemony in the international environment, but it can’t see that it is its own party hegemony that is getting in the way of China achieving its 21^st century potential.

Unfortunately, I very much doubt this will happen. Just like Mubarak, the CCP truly believes that it is China and without it, there will be chaos and it spends a lot of time and effort convincing ordinary people that this is the case. The CCP truly believes that it is the protector of the people. But as we saw in Egypt, the creator of chaos was the very system itself. The people did not need protection from themselves. They only needed protection from the vicious one party state system that breeds corruption and violence.

What created the stunning Chinese economic miracle was the act of giving the Chinese people FREEDOMS. It is the people of China, and not the party that made the confident, modern, prosperous China we all know and respect.

With political freedoms as well as economic freedoms the Chinese will be unstoppable. The CCP just needs to get out the way.

Egypt = Authoritarian Regimes 2008 Financial Meltdown

After the 2008 Financial Meltdown liberal democracy’s capitalist systems were put on notice. No longer were they the preeminent leaders of the global community. Authoritarian, controlled economies, led by China, were the floats that kept the whole system from capsizing. Everyone began to reconsider how the world might be changing and maybe the economic and political power was shifting? Democracies were out, controlled, authoritarian governments we in. China was having its moment in the sun. Without it, the global economy would have ground to an unflattering halt. China’s new found confidence was everywhere, bailing out European countries by buying up their debt and proudly revealing its latest multimillion dollar war-toys.

ERRRRRRRRHH………… not so fast.

That was 2010, this is 2011 and now, not to be left out, authoritarian regimes are having their own meltdown. Just like the west, they didn’t see it coming, even though the signs were everywhere and just like the west, they will never be the same again. If only bankers could go back to a time pre 2008, things would be great, likewise, if only the CCP could continue living the heady days of 2010 then the world would be a better place ...... for them!

Journalists and pundits are falling over themselves to pronounce that what is happening in Egypt could never happen in China, mainly because, China is too efficient at putting down protests at the grass roots and the people want harmony and peace more than revolution. Erh, so you mean just like Egypt was, right up to the point where people lost their fear and suddenly the regime lost all credibility?

The similarities between Egyptians and Chinese are many. Both see themselves as leaders of their regions, both have long proud histories, both have colonial pasts they’d rather forget. Both have had capitalist reforms that have increased the wealth gap between rich and poor. Both have a huge disenfranchised youth cultures. The list goes on. The only thing China has that Egypt doesn't is a control of social media.

Who knows how long the CCP can hold on, 1year, 10 years or 30years, but their destiny is fixed. What’s happening in Egypt will happen in China, it’s not a matter of if, only a matter of when. If Xi Xinping has any sense he will realize that he is staring into “Alice’s looking glass” and seeing the future.

The question is, will China’s military treat its citizens like the Egyptian military?

Not only are we getting a glimpse into China’s future, but we’re also seeing the dismantling of the CCPs present dream. For the past two years, hot of the back of the financial meltdown, Chinese leaders have pushed an alternative worldview to counter the liberal democratic consensus. The group of ‘non attendees’ at the Noble Peace Prize, represented a more authoritarian world, where controlled economies and controlled populations supposedly contributed to a safer more friendlier place to live.

Well ….. not so much.

Here’s the list of 'non attendees' - Russia, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Serbia, Iraq, Iran, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Venezuela, the Philippines, Egypt, Sudan, Ukraine, Cuba and Morocco.

As you can see, both Egypt and Tunisia are there and Sudan is no longer one country, represented by the oppressive northern, pro-China government. All the other governments have their authoritarian skeletons in the cupboards that could jump out at anytime.

Just like 2008 was a cataclysmic sea-change for the financial markets, so 2011 represents the collapse of this authoritarian, utopian dream for China.

But does China know it yet?

The unrest in Egypt couldn't have come at a better time for China - Chinese New Year. Everyone, was much too busy to be bothered, which has made it very easy for the CCP to ignore it. But ignore it, it can't. It will be interesting to see if China's foreign policy changes in the future, because whatever moral/economic prerogative it had just went up in smoke in Egypt.

China's J-20 Fighter

Fortunately for future military planners great innovative breakthroughs rarely happen in a vacuum and so rarely appear out of nowhere. This is why the generational analogy is so apt for describing military hardware. In the case of fifth generation fighters (5G), the concept encapsulates an enormous culmination of incremental knowledge that has led up to a new direction for the entire system. What is key is that the systems are continually evolving in conjunction with the human skills and the ongoing tactical knowledge. None of these factors exist separately from the other. In the case of the F-22 Raptor, this plane represents the technological and human breakthroughs that have been banked over numerous wars and countless morphications of the American fighter plane. In recent months the appearance of the Chinese J20 fighter has sent ripples through the military world, but we have to ask ourselves, what are we really looking at here? What really constitutes a 5G fighter?

To answer our question, we can first look at nature. Just like technology, the evolution of a species doesn’t just happen overnight in a vacuum. It’s a constant work in process evolving over countless generational designs and tweaks. Of course, in nature there are mimics, take the example of the Milk snake and the Coral snake, to the untrained eye, both look deadly, but one is harmless and practicing mimicry, while the other is a highly dangerous, venomous snake. Batesian mimicry as it is known is typified by a harmless species evolving to imitate the warning signals of a deadly species. This is possible as the evolutionary step to imitate outer appearance is much easier than the huge leap to synergize the entire biological system, venom and all. Snakes are not the only animals in the business of mimicry, we find it all over the animal kingdom, because natural selection actually makes this process fairly simple in evolutionary terms. However, biologists are not expecting the Milk Snake to suddenly materialize venom, as it has followed a completely different evolutionary track to its similar looking Coral cousin. Looking similar is good enough to serve its purpose and in reality, is the limit of the Milk snakes ability given the circumstances. Of course at the end of the day, both the snakes are in the business of killing, it’s just that one does it a lot more efficiently than the other, because it is packing venom. This Batesian mimicry is apt for generational weapons systems too and especially so for the modern 5G fighter presented to the world by the PLAAF. It certainly looks like a 5G fighter, but without the obvious evolutionary history to back it up, it may well prove to be more of a Milk snake than a Coral snake. Unfortunately, we can’t know without ‘looking under the hood,’ or seeing it in combat but the clear lesson from nature is that these things rarely, if ever happen over night and take time.

Of course, once upon a time, the Coral snake didn’t have poison either, and had to rely upon an evolutionary glitch to innovate it. So has this revolutionary leap taken place in the new Chinese 5G fighter? Again, we can’t know for sure, but if it has, we are looking at the first stage in a very long process, that is entirely separate from any of the generational breakthroughs that have taken place in the US militaries evolution since the dawning of flight and air combat. So, if we are looking at something truly innovative, then it would be much fairer to describe this as China’s 1^st generational fighter.

Detractors from this argument will argue, “But China can skip the previous evolutions by the clever use of reverse technology and leap-frog breakthroughs,” but this idea is more ‘hopeful’ than factual. Again, we can’t know, it could well be that the Chinese 5G fighter really has hurtled through the evolutionary steps that were needed to create the F-22. However we can look for signs in other fields, as major technological breakthroughs don’t happen in a vacuum, and signs of successful leapfrogging or reverse engineering will show up in other industries.

The obvious first place to look is the Shengyang J-11. Certainly this is a copy of the Sukhoi 27, originally purchased from the Russians to be built in China. The appearance of the identical J-11 was certainly met with consternation by the Russian arms market, especially when the J-11 was offered for international sale at a price that undercut the SU-27, but like so many ‘Made in China’ products, it too can’t escape the accusations of inferiority. Whether the claims are true or not, they certainly are persistent in tagging the J-11 as inferior to its SU-27 cousin. Claims that the Chinese-made engines have neither power nor survivability of the Russian engines all point to the notion that reverse engineering just doesn’t cut it when reproducing hi-tech products. Shengyang were able to reproduce the airframe as it was provided with blueprints, the vital avionics and engines were left out of the deal. Even the much-lauded J-20 is rumoured to be equipped with two Russian engines. A particularly ominous sign, if true, as it would clearly indicate that the J-11 engine problem is real and a significant hurdle for the Chinese technicians to reverse engineer. Obviously, if the J-11’s engines, were up to scratch then they would be the basis for development in the new J-20. The fact that the F-22’s engines were completely designed from scratch only widens the obvious known generational gaps between the two fighters.

We can also look on a much broader scale to see whether signs of ‘5G’ technology are coming of age in China. We can start by looking at other comparable technologies where China is not inhibited by the cumbersome arms ban imposed upon it by Europe and the U.S. The car industry is a good place to start. Foreign car companies have been heavily investing in China for over 25years. One only needs to travel north of Shanghai to see the huge car plants opened up by the likes of Volkswagon to see that China has had ample investment of both money and technology in this field, yet, China still does not produce a world class car, designed and manufactured entirely in China. The likes of Chery Motors are now making in-roads into the local market, but their future global penetration remains limited. Chery has been cited for stealing designs and has employed Mitsubishi employees to reinforce its brand, but still it struggles to produce a quality, global product. Chery plans to start importing sedan’s into the European and US markets in 2011, but let’s put a perspective on this, we’re talking a 25year cycle to produce a sedan fit for the global market and whose to say how it will compare to other sedan cars? So, the question has to be asked, if China isn’t producing a global, selling sedan, is it reasonable to believe that it is producing 5G technology for fighter planes? Until we see comparable high-technology coming out China in other industries then it will remain likely that the military technology it rolls out will be more mimic than substance. Call me a cynic, but until I see a Chinese government officials giving up their Japanese or German cars for local ones and a locally made high performance car, not a sedan, that is a preferred buying option over a Ferrari or the Porsche, then I’ll believe that engineers are making in roads through reverse technology. The PLA and its organizations are nowhere near as dynamic as modern Chinese companies with high levels of FDI. After all, Chery employs Japanese car specialists. This is obviously not happening over at Shegyang aircraft, who’s engineers are probably left studying models of F-22s to work out why the shapes occur like they do. We may take this example across the entire spectrum of products coming out of China, from kitchen taps to flat screen TVs. For China makes them all, but they’re not quality global brands and fall way short of the quality expected.

Here’s a list of the most prominent brands in China to look out for, Lenovo, Haier Geely Motors, Huawei, China Mobile, Baidu. All these companies were made as direct competitors to their high-end overseas competitors. They maybe making great in roads into the markets but are they really pioneering breakthrough technologies? Remember, when the German company Meile comes out with a new fridge design, Haier will probably buy up a dozen and reverse technology their own version, but this is not happening in the 5G fighter plane market. It simply isn’t reasonable to believe that the J-20 is anything but a FIRST GENERATION fighter for China and this will only be the case if all of its parts are designed and manufactured in China.

Taiwan unhappy with the Philippines

Fourteen Taiwanese nationals suspected of defrauding Chinese in the Philippines have been handed over to the Mainland Chinese authorities by the Philippines government, a move that has upset the government of Taiwan as it infers that Taiwan does NOT look after its own international affairs

The Lunar New Year incident has triggered protests from Taiwan, which is now considering how to "punish" the Philippines for not respecting Taiwan's sovereignty over its own nationals.

COMMENTARY

How much bending over backwards is the Aquino government going to do for the CCP after bungling the HK hostage crisis? One could say that the Aquino government is trying to play a smart game dancing between the US and China... this is a fair thought, but I doubt the Aquino government is that smart and is just being reflexive over these kind of decisions.

Meanwhile, China must be loving this gesture and will milk it for all its worth.

"Japan and Russia have exchanged heated comments over the disputed southern Kuril islands in the Pacific Ocean

Japan's PM Naoto Kan called a visit by Russia's president to the islands last year an "unforgivable outrage".

Mr Kan was speaking during a rally in Tokyo held to demand the return of the islands, which were occupied by Soviet troops at the end of World War II.

Russian FM Sergei Lavrov responded by saying that Mr Kan's remarks were "clearly undiplomatic"."

COMMENTARY

Conspiracy theorist amongst us might wonder why this old argument has resurfaced again in 2011? Coming so close after Japan announced that it was shifting its military focus from North to South, From Russia to China, one has to wonder why Russia would then deliberately draw Japan's military attention back on to it and the north?

Could China be incentivizing Russia? Who can tell? But something is amiss here...