Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Bad news or just bad reviews?

Bad news or just bad reviews?

With the current buzz around the PLA capabilities hitting an all time high, it is not uncommon to come across sensationalist articles that are big on speculation and low on actual facts. One such piece which is doing the rounds on the Internet is the article, Bad News for The US Navy, by Eric S Margolis. In it he confidently claims that China’s new ASBM really is “bad news” for the US carrier fleet. His opening sentence boasts,

“The mighty US Navy won’t say so publicly, but it’s increasingly worried by China’s development of new anti-ship missiles”.

Margolis certainly pulls no punches in trying to sensationalize his piece but in reality the article reads like he only found out about China’s ASBM yesterday and hasn't thought it through at all.

Margolis starts off by confidently proclaiming that, “According to Chinese sources, the DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) has recently become operational in limited numbers.”

Well no, this isn’t actually true. According to US sources this is the case but not according to Chinese official sources. Even the Chinese media refers to US sources as evidence of the ASBM’s readiness. Currently there are no official Chinese sources confirming the operational validity of the ASBM and it is more than likely to stay that way as an air of mystery suits the ASBM perfectly. The Chinese military thrives in the gaps of knowledge that conflate its abilities and the ASBM is the poster boy of this strategy. Even the US assessment has to be taken with a pinch-of-salt as the terms that are used are not transferable between the two militaries and at best refer only to the DF-21D rocket and not the entire ASBM system. So, it is more than likely that some DF-21Ds may have been initially deployed, but whether these are connected to a fully integrated ASBM system is very remote and completely unknown.

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