Locked in China’s sights

Anyone who follows the drumbeats coming out of China on a daily basis would have to be beyond naive to believe that in the near term a war involving China is not on the cards. The Chinese military wants one and the majority of the Chinese public will happily follow. It only remains to be seen whether the politicians can keep the lid on the war-box.

The principle target for this action is Vietnam.

I have been saying for years now that Vietnam will be the testing ground for China’s newfound military might and recent developments in the South China Seas only confirm that it is a matter of when and not if this is going to happen.

Vietnam is the perfect candidate for China’s newfound fascination with military strength and the notion of a limited war.

Firstly, these old foes have millennia of bad blood between them. China’s last foray into war was with Vietnam and because of its size and location China was able to choose the manner of both commencement and withdrawal. Knowing full well that the Vietnamese army neither had the means or the desire to escalate the war into China.

Secondly, these two nations are technically communist “bogey states,” and the West would have no moral justification to stop them mauling each other outside of the usual lame petitions via the UN to respect civilian casualties etc. In fact, some countries might relish the thought of these two old, Commie foes blooding each other.

Lastly, these two Communist states have tight control over their state media, so the inevitable outcomes of any conflict would be that they both started it, they were both the victim and they both won.

These factors are very real in the minds of Chinese generals and this is why the Vietnamese generals, unlike other ASEAN nations, refuse to blink when it comes to dealing with China. They know full well that any sign of weakness could spark a conflict. In contrast, China may put pressure on countries like the Philippines behind the scenes, but it is not going to openly capitalize on any apparent show of weakness through open confrontation. The Philippines is not in the so-called Communist family and to use a kitschy Chinese-style analogy; a father may readily beat his own son for the tiniest of infractions but will think twice before beating someone else’s son, especially if that son has a really big dad.

Whether Vietnam likes it or not, they’re still in the Communist family and therefore subject to its rules and paternal hierarchies. As we have seen, Vietnam is now trying to hastily maneuver into the US shadow and get out of China’s glare. Whatever your thoughts on this, it is undoubtedly motivated by good-ole fashioned Asian pragmatism. Vietnam knows it’s in China’s firing line and it is doing its best to get out of the way, pronto.

In reality though, Vietnam will probably not be able to cement new ties with the US quick enough to avoid another Sino/Vietnamese conflict. It’s military may overstate their hand or China may react before any real ties can be forged, making some form of conflict inevitable. It will also become harder to avoid a conflict if China's internal, economic problems become more grave and stir internal unrest. In a scenario like this, playing the nationalist card will become increasingly more attractive and Vietnam will surely be the recipient.

However it starts, both of them will blame each other for starting it, both of them will win and the world will struggle to find out the real facts.

What is clear is that this conflict will set the tone for the South China Sea for the coming years. In his great piece, China plays its own game as US treads water, Michael Auslin creates a fantastic analogy for the South China Sea as being like a billiard table. Where China is seeking to knock other countries off the table in order to control the rich resources in the area, while trying to appease the US that its beloved freedom of the seas will be maintained intact. Right now, China is lining up the Vietnamese ball to be fired into a "convenient" pocket and its hopes are that the US won’t over react and that other ASEAN countries will quickly get the message that the resources in the South China Seas belong to China. China will share them, but on her terms only.

I think the leadership in Beijing would enjoy Auslin’s billiard table analogy a lot. It is heavily loaded with Chinese intrigue, Sun Tzu’s Art of War and a heavy dose of the CCP’s favorite tactic, plausible deniability.

The "Great Game" of the 21st century has already commenced, only time will tell how it will ultimately play out but a new Sino/Vietnamese war will be one of the opening acts.